Labrador Aluminum Market Trends 09/17/2025

Gold, Mining, Inflation, and Potential Rate Cuts

The aluminum market has been volatile. It seems the domestic market wants to stay where it is. When the premium goes down, the LME will go up. When the 3M goes down, the cash will go up, and vice versa. We’ve seen unprecedented levels of backwardation. This morning, the officials show the LME down just over a penny and the premium staying at 0.7505. The Midwest Transaction price is just over a penny lower from yesterday overall. Of course, when my market tools update the LME cash, based on the ring trading, then we will most likely see a change, which will be reflected in my offers later on. If you have not already been in touch for aluminum procurement or sales, please contact Wes Foster - wf@labrecy.com

LME $1.2202

MWP $0.7505

MWTP $1.9707

Some contributing factors of the last week

- Deutsche Bank has increased its gold price forecast for next year by $300, predicting an average of $4,000 per ounce. This adjustment is driven by robust central bank demand, the potential weakening of the U.S. dollar, and expectations of a renewed rate-easing cycle by the Federal Reserve. However, both Gold Spot and Comex Gold are down by 24 points this morning.

- Canada's Ivanhoe Mines secures $500 million investment from Qatar wealth fund. Ivanhoe has its main mining projects in South Africa. Canada has already been shipping Canadian Prime aluminum from Canada to other countries across the pond, and away from the US. At the same time, during Trump’s tariff wars, more scrap metal has been shipping from Canada into the US, supplementing the loss of prime.

- Bank of America has raised its minimum hourly wage to $25 nationwide, fulfilling its 2021 promise. This increase marks a nearly 67% rise in minimum hourly pay since 2018. Prior to this adjustment, the bank’s minimum wage stood at $24 per hour. It will be interesting to see if developments like this factor into the Federal Reserve's decision later today.

- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates by 0.25 of a point, in response to a weakening labor market marked by rising unemployment and slower job growth, despite some signs of inflation ticking up recently.

Last Week’s AL Trends

LLME AL High: 1.2322

LLME AL Low: 1.1898

MWP High: 0.7565

MWP Low: 0.7505

MWTP High: 1.9827

MWTP Low: 1.9463

For your most up-to-date Aluminum Market insights, the best prices, reliable logistics, and customs - Labrador Recycling. Brought to you by Wes Foster, Sr Business Development Manager.