Global Politics Shake Up Aluminum Markets: Canada’s New PM, Tariff Stacking, and Market Volatility — April 30, 2025

This week has been a whirlwind of global economic and political developments with direct implications for the aluminum market. Here’s what you need to know.

Canada Elects a New Prime Minister

Canada’s federal election concluded on Monday, April 28, 2025, ushering in a shift in leadership and policy direction. Mark Carney, who took over as leader of the Liberal Party earlier this year following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, is now the country’s new, full-term prime minister. Carney’s platform — emphasizing a unified Canada and a firm stance against Trump-era trade policies — catapulted the Liberals back into

prominence during a time when the conservative party's victory seemed assured.

Key early actions from Carney’s government include:

·         Pausing both the carbon tax and proposed capital gains taxes

·         A planned 1% cut to personal income tax

·         A declared intention to challenge any renewed tariff threats from the U.S.

·         Plans to strengthen trade relations with the European Union

U.S. Expands Tariff "Stacking" Policy

In Washington, President Trump has issued new orders expanding the scope of the U.S. tariff "offset" system for domestic vehicle manufacturers. The White House released full documentation clarifying how the new policy will prevent stacking auto duties on top of existing steel, aluminum, and Canadian or Mexican tariffs. Notably, this broadens the original tariff stacking policy further than officials first anticipated — a development that could impact cross-border supply chains, including for metals like aluminum.

U.S.-South Korea Trade Talks Hit a Wall

On the international front, trade negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea have stalled. Despite early optimism for a reciprocal tariff package, a senior South Korean official announced this week that Seoul will not finalize a deal with Washington before South Korea’s presidential election on June 3. Further challenges could delay any agreement beyond early July, adding more uncertainty to global metals trade.

Aluminum Market Volatility Intensifies

Amid all of this geopolitical activity, the aluminum market remains highly volatile. Here’s a snapshot of key movements:

·         LME 3-Month prices have dropped dangerously close to LME cash values, raising the risk of backwardation.

·         LME Cash fell nearly three cents per pound since yesterday and nearly a penny throughout today’s trading. Since markets reopened after Easter weekend (Tuesday, April 22), the LME rose by 0.0195 by Monday, April 28 — gained nearly two cents yesterday — and then fell almost three cents today.

·       Midwest Premium (MWP), a key domestic U.S. aluminum price marker, has fallen by 0.0135 since last Tuesday and is now at its lowest point since April 9.

The LME aluminum market reflects broad economic forces worldwide — explaining much of the current turbulence. The MWP, meanwhile, is strictly a domestic indicator relevant to U.S. sales and signals continued softness in domestic aluminum demand.

We’ll continue to monitor these trends closely as political shifts and trade dynamics evolve.

Stay tuned for next week’s update.

Insights, offers, and great customer service provided by Wes Foster - Sr Business Development Manager.